Deja Vous All Over Again
Texas suffers an extreme defensive meltdown (two meltdowns but who’s counting?) and an embarrassing loss on national television. The defensive coordinator is relieved of his duties. The head coach vows to get it fixed and the death watch begins. I’m describing events in Texas Football in 2013 and here we go again in 2016. What’s going on with the Longhorns was inexplicable in 2013 and it’s inexplicable now. Five million a year sure doesn’t buy as much as it used to.
There’s no need for me to recount the events that took place at Boone Pickens stadium on Saturday. If you’re reading this you witnessed it for yourself, heard about it, or read about it. Putting histrionics aside let’s review what I thought a month ago about how Texas might fare in 2016.
In my season preview column on September 2, I broke down the season into three sets of games to arrive at my prediction for Texas’ final regular season record. I’ve included their current record in each set.
Set One
1.Notre Dame
2. Oklahoma
3. Baylor
4. TCU
Set One record: 1-3 (10/3 actual, 1-0)
Set Two
1. Cal
2. Oklahoma St.
3. Kansas St.
4. Texas Tech
Set Two record 2-2 (10/3 actual, 0-2)
Set Three
1. UTEP
2. Iowa State
3. West Virginia
4. Kansas
Set Four record: 4-0 (10/3 actual, 1-0)
Willie Earl’s 2016 season prediction: 7-5
As of today, the Horns are still on track to finish 7-5. They can lose all three remaining games in Set One. That’s a done deal right? In Set Two they have to beat Iowa State and West Virginia at home and beat Kansas on the road. 4-0 for Set Two still seems doable don’t you think?
So that brings my 7-5 prediction, and possibly the fate of Charlie Strong’s tenure at Texas, down to the Kansas State and Texas Tech games in Set Three. Can he win both games which are on the road where he’s 1-6 in his last seven?
Kansas State
Heck, KSU averages only 168 passing yards and 31.8 points per game. Texas wins this one easily right?
Texas Tech
Can Strong improve the pass defense enough by November 5, to hold Texas Tech to say, 400 passing yards (Tech averages 547 per game) and less than 40 points? If so I think his team has a chance because Texas Tech has given up an average of 37 points a game so far this season. I’m putting this one into the win column for Charlie.
So it pretty much looks like my 7-5 prediction is safe and with it Charlie’s job for one more year right? The rebuild is still on schedule. How they look and the emotions they inspire in their fans getting to 7-5 is irrelevant in this analysis.
I thought you could use some good news today about the Longhorns. 🙂
Hook ‘Em,
W.E.
Over/Uner Results
In the “Never a bride always a bridesmaid” category, Mike Frank tied for first place again this week with eight correct answers, then lost in the the tiebreaker to the veteran Wade Wallace who returns to the winning circle for the first time this year. Mike and Wade guessed right eight times this week. Greg Swan finished in solo third with seven correct.
Grader’s Observations
All but one player overestimated the number of turnovers the Texas defense would force. It will be interesting going forward to see how many ways the Texas defense can continue underperforming.
More than two out of every three players overestimated the special team’s capability in returning kickoffs. As with the defense, it will be interesting to see how futile Texas’ special teams will be in the remaining eight games.
