Are Reports of the Longhorns’ Demise Greatly Exaggerated?

If you knew before the season started that the Longhorns would be 6-2 going into the Texas Tech game I’m thinking you would have been mildly disappointed but not—to use a Mack Brown favorite—negative about the team.  That 6-2 includes the four game stretch we were talking about in pre-season of Oklahoma State on the road, West Virginia at home, Oklahoma and Baylor at home. We expected all of those games to be very competitive including the Baylor game.  I think we would have been very satisfied with a 3-1 record during that stretch. Texas, at 6-2, is only one game behind a pace that we would have been very happy with.

So why is the difference between 7-1 and 6-2 so stark in the eyes of most Longhorn fans, bloggers and commentators?  It’s because the last 3 games: the Oklahoma blow out, the yielding of 50 points even in a win against Baylor and the close call against Kansas seems more like a three game losing streak that two wins and a loss.  It appears that Mack Brown may have lost control of the quality of his team’s performance on game day.  The consensus of what I’ve heard and read this week from all quarters is that Texas will finish the season 8-4 at best but more likely 7-5.

I’m thinking 9-3 with an outside chance that Texas runs the table and ends up 10-2. My thinking is that the Kansas game brought Mack Brown and Harsin face to face with the reality of what kind of offense they need to run if they hope to salvage the season. If I’m right that means Texas will score somewhere in the 40s against Tech, Iowa St. and TCU. That should be enough to beat Iowa St. and TCU.  Texas Tech doesn’t run the ball very well. It’s possible, just possible that we’ve seen the worst of Texas’ run defense. So if they force Tech to throw lots of short passes resulting in time consuming drives they won’t have enough time to score 40 points themselves.  So now I’ve got Texas to 9 wins.

The conventional wisdom is that Texas doesn’t have a chance to beat Kansas St. on December 1, in Manhattan, Kansas.  I’m not a big fan of conventional wisdom.  Where did conventional wisdom ever get anyone?  What if Collin Klein gets injured and is out for the Texas game?  What if Kansas St. turns it over five times?  What if the Texas offense is hitting on all cylinders and scores in the 40s? What if the Texas players decide it’s time to win one for Mack and play the game of their lives?  I could go on but all the possible scenarios that lead to a Texas victory aren’t as important to me as my lack of belief that Kansa St. will finish the season undefeated.  There’s something out of phase for me in the idea that Kansas St. is Alabama 2.0.  Of course there is a first time for everything.

Okay so there you have it. Texas will go at least of 9-3 with a puncher’s chance of achieving 10-2.  You won’t hear or read this anywhere else but I think it’s worth bringing up the possibility.

Going out on a limb again

I had so much fun in being right about Notre Dame beating Oklahoma I thought I’d try it again this week. Texas Tech will choke on their big opportunity to beat Texas for the first time in 4 years. Texas 45, Tech 27.

HooK eM,

W.E.

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