In the latter stages of last season, a friend told me about a theory he had heard about the arc of a successful college football program’s turnaround. It goes something like this: In season one, you lose big (Texas 2021,5-7). In season two, you lose close (Texas 2022,8-5). In season three, you win close (Texas 2023, 12-2). In season four, you win big (Texas 2024, TBD).
Let’s test this theory against the two most dominant programs of the last decade and a half.
Alabama
Nick Saban took the reins at Alabama in 2007. Alabama’s W-L record over Saban’s first three seasons was 7-6, 12-2, and in 2009, 14-0 culminating in a National Championship. Saban was a year ahead of the curve of the above model. They slipped to 10-3 in 2010—if you call 10-3 slipping—but have been dominant with six National Championships since then.
Georgia
Kirby Smart took over at Georgia in 2016. Their W-L record over Smart’s first three years was 8-5, 13-2, losing the National Championship game to Alabama, 11-3, and in year four, 12-2. In 2021, year six of Smart’s tenure, Georgia won the National Championship.
While not a perfect match to the model my friend described, Saban’s Alabama and Smart’s Georgia come pretty close to it.
This analysis raises the question: Was Steve Sarkisian’s and Texas’ success in 2023 the culmination of a three-year build, and is Texas falling back this season as it struggles to replace the loss of 11 players to the NFL draft? Or has the program reached the level where 2024 is a reload rather than a rebuild?
My concerns about the 2024 Longhorns
Receivers
Texas’ top four receivers from 2023, Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Jordan Whittington are gone. Their projected replacements are Matthew Golden, DeAndre Moore, Isah Bond, and Gunnar Helm.
Golden and Bond are transfers from Houston and Alabama respectively. If memory serves, both were their team’s leading receivers in 2023. Some of you may recall Golden’s seven catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns against the Horns last year.
The sophomore Moore is a homegrown Longhorn. He played in 10 games last year and returned one kick for 15 yards against TCU. A more familiar name to Longhorn fans is Gunnar Helm, a senior who has been the primary tight-end backup for the past two seasons. In 2023, he had 14 receptions for 192 yards and two touchdowns.
The resumes of these players, along with what looks like good depth provided by sophomore Johntay Cook and five-star freshman Ryan Wingo, should make me less of a skeptic about the transition in the receiver room from last season to this season, but this is a wholesale change of cast for Quinn Ewers to be developing rapport with.
Pass Defense
As has been a Texas custom over the past decade, The Longhorns ranked near the bottom of the country in pass defense last year, ranking 113 out of 130 teams in the FBS. As a 2023 parting shot, the defense yielded 430 yards in passing to Washington in the Sugar Bowl loss. The defense gave up 378 yards and three touchdowns to Houston in what would have been a disastrous loss if not for a blown officials’ call that went the Horns’ way.
Then, there was the ending of the Oklahoma game. Oklahoma drove 75 yards in 5 plays—72 by passing—in 1:02 to win the game.
In my last column of the 2023 season, I wrote that Steve Sarkisian needed to replace his defensive coordinator. He didn’t. I have zero confidence in Pete Kwiatkowski.
Steve Sarkisian
Sarkisian’s Texas teams have a habit of snatching nail-biter games from the jaws of big leads. In the 2023 season, Texas had a 21-point lead over Houston before Houston tied the game at 21-21. Texas eventually won 31-24.
Against Kansas St., Texas had 17-0 and 27-7 leads before Kansas St. tied the game and forced Texas into overtime.
Texas took a 26-6 lead over TCU into the fourth quarter, but TCU outscored Texas 20-3. Texas scored only three points in the second half.
This pattern of blowing big leads wasn’t unique to 2023. Sark’s Texas teams displayed the same pattern in 2021 and ’22. This is a Sarkisian issue.
Oklahoma
Sarkisian is 1-2 versus Oklahoma when arguably he should be 3-0. Texas can’t afford to pencil in a loss to Oklahoma this year when they have Michigan, Georgia, and Texas A&M on the schedule.
Not a Concern-the SEC
The SEC schedule that Texas drew in 2024 is arguably not as good as the Big 12 schedule was last year. Here’s how I broadly draw the comparison.
Mississippi State = Iowa State
Oklahoma = Oklahoma
Georgia is a fly in the ointment of my comparison.
Vanderbilt is worse than any 2023 Big 12 opponent.
Florida = TCU
Arkansas = Texas Tech
Kentucky = Baylor
Texas A&M = Kansas State
2024 Prognostications for Texas
Please find me a writer, blogger, or podcaster on any website or publication specializing in reporting and analyzing Longhorn Football that doesn’t have them penciled into the college football playoffs. When I see such unanimity of opinion, I think a contrarian opinion is required.
If I were forced to lay hard-earned money on a prediction for the Longhorns’ season, I would predict the Horns to post a 9-3 regular season record and miss the college football playoff because one of their losses came to unranked Florida, Kentucky, or Arkansas.
Colorado State
Colorado State runs a version of the Air Raid offense. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, the quarterback, threw for 3,460 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions in 2023. Their leading receiver is Troy Horton, who had 96 receptions for 1,136 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Another receiver for CSU is Armani Winfield, a transfer from Baylor and a former four-star recruit who initially committed to Texas. This week, Steve Sarkisian commented, “We know Armani well. We recruited him and he was committed here a couple of years ago,” Sarkisian said. “The addition of him is helpful for them.”
Colorado State will be a good early test of Texas’ pass defense, and I’m looking forward to it.
Hook ‘Em.
W.E.
Songs of the Week
Hard to beat The Dukes of September with Donald Fagen, Michael McDonald, and Boz Scaggs.
