Here are some thoughts that have popped into my head this week and my very own analytical analysis and prediction for the TCU game.
1. We know the Texas defense is bad. It’s 119th out of 130 teams in Division 1 and 126th against the pass. But did you know that Texas ranks 130th (DFL) in punt returns averaging -0.63 per return? The good news is Texas’ punt return defense is good giving up an average of 3.63 yards per return which ranks 22nd. The bad news is Texas is 65th in net punting at 38.37 yards per punt. This isn’t helpful to the Horns porous defense.
2. I’ve been a sports fan all my life but it’s only been the last three or four years that I heard the concept that a head coach’s job is to coach the assistant coaches. It seems fair to observe that Tom Herman is not doing a great job coaching Todd Orlando and the defensive position coaches. How can you have a coaching staff at this level, at this stage of the season that needs to conduct remedial tackling instruction? It should boggle your mind.
3. For about oh … the tenth year in a row we’re hearing that Texas’ defensive schemes and game plans need to be simplified to allow the defenders natural ability and instincts kick in.
Tackle eligible pass plays aside, the offensive scheme and game plans have already been simplified. Texas runs few if any counter plays in the running game and it’s very predictable before the play by formation when a running play is coming. The swing passes to running backs behind the line of scrimmage are telegraphed from 100 miles away. This lack of sophistication seemed to have made offensive adjustments impossible against Oklahoma and resulted in 310 yards of total offense, 170.9 yards below their season average.
Giving credit where credit is due Texas is 9th in the country in scoring averaging 40.9 yards per game and is 16th in total offense at 480.9 yards a game. It’s going to be interesting to see how Ehlinger and the Horns fare against TCU. Their defense is 11th in total defense allowing 281 yards a game. Interestingly, TCU is a pedestrian 53rd in scoring defense giving up 24.7 points per game. On paper, this should be a good game.
The Big 12 Race
If Texas wins out they will play in the Big 12 Championship period. They could lose a second conference game and still qualify for the Championship game. However, if that lose comes to Baylor—in all probability—they won’t make it because Baylor is currently undefeated and it’s extremely unlikely that they will lose more than two conference games down the stretch. If Texas and Baylor finished in tie for second with two losses, Baylor—with a win over Texas goes to the championship game.
Any questions?
Willie Earl’s Statistical Breakdown and prediction for the TCU game
Below see Willie Earl’s chart of statistics breaking down the Texas-TCU game with Willie Earl’s soon to be patented weighted adjustments. The formulas I devised for the adjustments are very complex (I took and passed Algebra ll/Trigonometry and I learned how to manually keep score in bowling at age 8).
Willie Earl’s chart predicts a less than one point victory for TCU rounded up to a full point 36-35. I’m sorry, the chart is the chart.
I will email separately readers who request an explanation of my formula.
