Having concluded that the Longhorns’ ceiling with Quinn Ewers at quarterback was below winning the national championship, I have been churning over the possibility that Steve Sarkisian would make a change at quarterback. Given Steve Sarkisian’s intense loyalty to Ewers, barring injury, it appears highly unlikely he would bench Ewers.  But there is a precedent for such a change.

In the 2017 National Championship game, Georgia led Alabama 13-0 at halftime. Alabama’s offense with Jalen Hurts at quarterback was sputtering.  Nick Saban replaced Hurts with true freshman Tua Tagovailoa at the start of the second half.  It’s one thing to bench your starting quarterback in midseason, but to do it in the second half of the national championship was a bold stroke by Saban, to say the least. Watching the game, I was shocked, but I didn’t know there had been speculation within the program and fan base that Tua should be the starter. He had appeared in eight games that season and thrown 11 touchdown passes. By comparison, Arch Manning has appeared in eight games this season and thrown nine touchdown passes. Anyway, Tua led Alabama to victory 26-23 in overtime. Tua was Alabama’s full-time starter in 2018, with Hurts backing him up. Hurts transferred to Oklahoma for his senior season.

The Saban-Sarkisian connection is well known. I’m just saying.

Clemson vs Texas

As of this writing, Texas is favored by 12 points. For what it’s worth, Texas hasn’t beaten the line since the Florida game on November 9^th.  I have bet on one football game in the past 44 years and that was because a friend offered an insane point spread on a game that I knew more about than he did. If I were a gambler, I’d bet on Clemson. I don’t see Texas winning this game by more than six points.

The Texas defense has been great, and it ranks second in the country in points allowed behind Ohio State. The offense, on the other hand, has been trending down. In the last four games, it has averaged 21.75 points per game and has scored more than 20 just once versus Kentucky. Clemson’s defense has been respectable, giving up 364 yards and 22.3 points per game. Unless Texas solves its red zone woes, a 22-point output versus Clemson seems like a good prediction. As good as Texas’ defense has been, I don’t see it holding Clemson, averaging 35.5 points a game, to less than 13 points.

Clemson has an edge over Texas in two critical factors. Sark has been touting his team’s experience in playoff games, but I give Dabo Sweeny a clear edge over Sarkisian in the head coaching matchup. He has won two national championships at Clemson and is 6-4 in CFB playoff games since 2015. And I’ll take Cade Klubnik over Quinn Ewers in the quarterback matchup. For the season, Klubnik has 33 touchdowns against five interceptions. Ewers has 25 TDs and nine interceptions. Klubnik is a genuine running threat with 458 yards rushing yards and seven rushing TDs. Ewers running is not a threat.

Overall, Texas has a much better roster than Clemson, but Clemson has standouts on the defensive line in tackle Peter Wood and edge rusher TJ Parker. Parker has 11 sacks on the season, and Wood has three and is a solid run-stopper.  I expect Quinn Ewers to be sacked no fewer than three times in this game.

Bert Auburn is a problem. Let’s hope Texas doesn’t have to rely on him to make clutch kicks in this game.

Conclusion

As usual, I’m worried about this game. If Texas reverses its trend in the red zone, it will win convincingly, but teams seldom solve red zone deficiencies this late in the season.

Because of the Klubnik versus Ewers matchup and Texas’ red zone woes, I expect a close game that will be a nail-biter into the fourth quarter.

W.E.

Songs of the Week

Where were you in ’72?

Shouldn’t have taken me three years to get to this one.