It’s hard for me to work up much interest or emotion for this game but Herman desperately needs to win this one and a bowl game to pull this season out of the jaws of total disaster.
Over the
objection of one of my sternest critics, in tribute to Ben Barnes, it’s time
for Willie Earl’s annual “Various and Sundry” column on a variety of
subjects—some of them Longhorn Football related.
1. Iowa State’s offense looks like a very tough matchup for the Texas defense. ISU is 8th in passing offense, 16th in total offense, and 19th in scoring offense. Texas is 124th in passing defense, 109th in total defense, and 89th in scoring defense. Iowa State’s offense passed the Willie Earl “eye test” last Saturday night when they put up 41 on Oklahoma. As I mentioned earlier in the week, I was particularly impressed by tight end Charlie Kolar and by running back Breece Hall. I don’t remember the Horns facing a really good tight end this year and I wonder how Todd Orlando plans to defend Kolar?
3. Do you
know what I’ve noticed? All the Kirk Herbstreit wannabes out there think it
makes them sound cutting edge to say “RPO” every six seconds? I’ve always
wanted to use the word hackneyed in a sentence. Now I can. Let the word go
forth from this time and place to friend and foe alike that “RPO” is now
officially a hackneyed expression. Furthermore, RPO it’s not a cutting edge
concept. It’s older than the “single wing” which is really old.
4. Want to
hear another hackneyed expression?
“Score the basketball.” It might be the stupidest sports phrase I’ve
ever heard.
5. Texas is
the only Big 12 team Matt Campbell hasn’t beaten as the coach of Iowa State. I
don’t like the sound of that this week.
6. Iowa State is seven point favorite over Texas. It’s doesn’t seem right for Texas to be an underdog to a Big 12 team that doesn’t . . . well, you know.
7. Speaking
of Oklahoma, from what I’ve seen of Baylor, I don’t think they will beat
Oklahoma. On the other hand I think Jalen Hurts is the most overrated player in
college football. Did you see the interception he threw last week in the fourth
quarter that set up the Iowa State touchdown that nearly cost Oklahoma the
game? He may not be drafted until sixth
or seventh round of the NFL draft and maybe not at all according to the experts
who cover the draft. Also, it seems that
Oklahoma’s defense is reverting to its 2018 form. So who knows, maybe Baylor
has a chance.
8. Okay, from what I’ve heard, the dream about going to a final exam for a college class you haven’t been to all semester is kind of “standard issue.” I’ve had it hundreds of times. Last week I had the dream except I was in high school. Does this indicate a “Flowers for Algernon” type situation?
9. Here’s a
bold prediction. While everybody talks about whether Alabama will get in the
CFP with one loss, I predict they’ll lose to Auburn next week. End of
discussion. It will be the first time since the playoff started that Alabama
won’t be in it.
10. Here’s a
news flash. It’s going to be cold in Ames, Iowa on November 16th.
You think I’m being sarcastic? Well my
hometown newspaper thought it was worthy of sports section front page lead
headline news earlier this week. Hey Statesman, I have a scoop for you. Starting
around the middle of March next year, daily temperatures in large areas of the northern
hemisphere will begin to gradually rise. In Austin the gradual increase could
lead to temperatures nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit by sometime in June or
July. Amazingly, when the Longhorns play their first home game of the 2020
season on September 5, it might be hot. Even if it’s a night game!
11. I fear
an impending disaster. I don’t approve of the way Tom Herman—or “Mensa Boy”—as we
refer to him around our house, has handled the end of the Kansas and Kansas
State games this year. To refresh your memory, Texas was trailing Kansas 48-47
with :08 left in the game and had a first and 10 on the Kansas’ 21 yard line
with no timeouts remaining. Instead of sending in the very reliable Cameron
Dicker to kick a 38 yard field goal to win the game. Herman kept the offense on
the field and Ehlinger completed a six yard pass to Devin Duvernay who stepped
out of bounds with :05 left. Do we think that the six yards was worth the risk
of a botched snap or an interception that would have resulted in Texas
losing? In an even more likely scenario,
Texas gets flagged for a false start, holding, or an illegal formation. In that
case the rules call for an automatic :10 runoff which ends the game before
Dicker gets a chance at the kick. Oh well. All’s well that ends well I suppose.
At the end of the Kansas State, game it looked as though Herman had decided to run the clock down and kick a field goal on the last play of the game for the win. Instead, Ehlinger ran the ball over right end for a touchdown with :39 left seemingly giving Kansas State the opportunity for a final possession and a chance to tie the game. Fortuitously for Texas, they were penalized for an illegal formation negating the touchdown and giving them the chance to run the clock down and kick the winning field goal on the last play of the game.
Herman said
in his postgame press conference that they were lucky they were called for the
penalty and that he was talked in to going for the touchdown by Ehlinger and
the offensive linemen. It seems like “Mensa Boy” gets a little frazzled in
those situations.
By the way,
Kansas State’s coach Kris Klieman could have and should have declined the
penalty so they could get the ball back.
12. As I
mentioned earlier, Texas is a seven point underdog to Iowa State. It’s time for
Texas to win a game they’re not supposed to win. Their season depends on it.
Willie Earl’s
Kansas State @ Texas Game Model called the game a toss-up. Pretty good modeling
if I do say so myself.
Willie Earl’s Texas @ Iowa State Game Model has Iowa State winning 39-33.
When you catch the common cold you don’t need a doctor to
diagnose what’s ailing you and Longhorn fans don’t need Kirk Herbstreit to
diagnose what’s ailing their team. It’s
a historically bad defense that can’t stop the pass (126th out of
130 nationally), rush the passer (97th nationally in sacks), or stop
the run (68th nationally).
Making matters worse, Sam Ehlinger has thrown six
interceptions in the last two games after throwing only one in the first six
games of the season. Perhaps he’s pressing a bit because he thinks he needs to
score on every possession because the defense won’t stop anybody. It should be
noted that two of his interceptions in the TCU game were the fault of receivers
running poor routes.
Here I could offer the Longhorns treatment recommendations
for treating their condition but I won’t because it’s been done by many other
commentators and writers and you’ve probably already read or heard them. Instead, I’ll just offer my prognosis for the
rest of this season and maybe a little beyond.
One of my favorite words is callow. The first time I heard
it I knew what it meant because it’s one of those words that by the sound of it
creates an image in your mind of what it means.
Incidentally, at my advanced age, looking back, I realize I was often
the perfect illustration of the expression callow youth. That’s a long story
for another time.
In Merriam-Webster, three of the synonyms listed for callow
are immature, inexperienced, and unformed.
At times when I watch Tom Herman, I see immaturity in the sarcastic way
he often deals with questions he doesn’t like.
Considering that he’s only midway through his third year of coaching a
high-profile power five college football program—through no fault of his own—he
s inexperienced. And—at 44 years
old—hopefully, he’s unformed. As a Texas
fan, I’d hate to think he was already fully formed.
Perhaps callow is a little harsh in describing Tom Herman.
Maybe I should just say he’s inexperienced. And it’s his inexperience combined
with his stubbornness that informs my prognosis that Herman will not be able to
solve his team’s problems this season especially on defense. If Caden Sterns returns, that will help a
little but not enough to make a demonstrable difference.
Except for the offense’s performance against Kansas, Texas
has not played well in their last three games. I’ve read unattributed reports
on InsideTexas.com that there is discord between coaches and players. We can
only guess what’s going on behind the scenes but it seems obvious something is
wrong with this team besides a poor defense.
The cumulative record of Texas’ remaining four opponents, Kansas
State, Iowa State, Baylor, and Texas Tech is 20-10. In conference, it’s
10-8. Baylor and Iowa State on the road
look particularly difficult though watching Baylor last night against West
Virginia, I wasn’t impressed. Baylor and Iowa State are 12th and 27th
respectively nationally in scoring offense.
Last year, the Horns rallied after two straight losses to
Oklahoma State and West Virginia by winning their last three games to finish
the regular season 9-3 and qualify for the Big 12 Championship game. That team
was in a different place mentally and emotionally than this year’s team. Last
year even after those two straight losses, it was a team that was confident
that it was improving and on the come. I don’t sense that in this year’s team.
My track record for predicting ahead of time what will
happen in football is spotty at best. In August, I predicted Texas would go
11-1 during the regular season. But that won’t stop me from giving it another
go.
Texas will go 2-2 in their last four games finishing 7-5 for
the regular season. I think that would put them in the Texas Bowl for the
second time in Herman’s three seasons at Texas.
If Texas does finish 7-5 with a trip to the Texas Bowl,
there will be expectations all around that Herman will shake up his staff, particularly
on defense. Speculating for
speculation’s sake, I see Herman standing pat with Todd Orlando who’s been the
only defensive coordinator he’s ever had starting in Houston in 2015. He can justify it by pointing to the large
number of injuries Orlando had to deal with. In addition to the injuries Herman
can turn to what has become over the last 10 years the standard coach’s
fallback at Texas, “We’re young,” to justify the defense’s struggles.
In the third largest field in the 13 year history of Willie Earl’s Over/Under contest, Steve Holstead emerged victorious turning in a strong performance with eight correct answers.
Eric Vogl, David Bergstrom, Al LoCascio, and Mitchell Frink
tied for second with seven correct.
The average score among the 20 contestants was a pretty
healthy 5.8.
BF
Coming Friday thoughts on the state of the Longhorn program
and the rest of the 2019 season.
