Conventional wisdom says playing LSU in Baton Rouge at night is one of the toughest challenges in college football. LSU fans tailgate all day and are liquored up and hostile by game time. It’s said to be so loud that opposing teams can’t hear signals and have to resort to silent counts. It’s just a downright intimidating place to play for opposing teams.
Not wanting to accept this narrative at face value, I researched LSU’s recent home-game history, particularly at night. Since 2024, including this season, LSU is 13-2 at night in Baton Rouge. Against ranked teams at night, they are 1-2, beating #23 Texas A&M this season. They lost to #3 A&M in ’25 and to #11 Alabama in ’24. My conclusion: Night games at LSU are harder on visiting teams’ fans than on the players. For good teams, playing at night in Baton Rouge is just another road game.
Mirror images
LSU’s defense is performing as well as Texas’s this season. Texas is ranked 2nd in FEI; LSU is 5th. Texas is #19 in scoring defense, allowing 17.4 points per game. LSU is #20, allowing 17.7 points per game.
In the FEI overall rankings, LSU is fifth, and Texas is seventh.
In ESPN’s power index, Texas is #6 and LSU is #7.
Arch Manning has a 151 passer rating. Sam Leavitt has a 154 passer rating.
Manning has 18 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. Leavitt has 17 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions.
Differences that might make a difference
1. Sam Leavitt averages 37.7 rushing yards per game and has 8 rushing touchdowns. Manning averages 10.1 rushing yards per game and has 2 rushing touchdowns.
2. Leavitt is 6th in the country in QBR (total quarterback rating). Manning is 60th.
Here’s how AI defines QBR. A modern, advanced metric created by ESPN (in consultation with statisticians like Dean Oliver) that measures a quarterback’s total value to the team on a scale of 0 to 100 (where 50 is average).
How it’s calculated: QBR uses play-by-play data and attributes credit to the quarterback for every single action on the field. It accounts for:
- Passing, but weighted by down, distance, field position, and score differential (clutch situations and high-leverage plays matter more).
- Rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and scrambles.
- Negative plays, including sacks and fumbles lost.
- Penalties caused or avoided.
- Key advantage: It attempts to isolate the quarterback’s actual contribution by removing external factors (like a receiver breaking a tackle to turn a 2-yard pass into a 70-yard touchdown, giving most of the credit to the receiver rather than the quarterback
3. LSU averages 37.1 points per game. Texas averages 31.1.
4. LSU converts 50% of its 3rd downs. Texas converts 40%.
5. Texas has beaten four ranked teams this season. LSU has beaten one: Texas A&M.
Sarkisian and Kiffin
Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin coached together and served as offensive coordinators at USC and Alabama. Both were head coaches at USC and were fired.
They’re good friends who exchange texts regularly.
They both coached in the NFL. Sarkisian was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before being fired, and Kiffin was the head coach of the Oakland Raiders before being fired.
I don’t trust either one of them in big games.
Some LSU fans are calling Kiffin “Wiffin.” That’s funny. If LSU loses to Texas and Tennessee next week, would they fire Kiffin after just one season? I think it’s possible.
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LSU is statistically better than Texas, but Texas has been better against ranked opponents. It will be a revealing game, if not a good game. As of this writing, LSU is favored by 4.
This season will look a lot different for both teams after this game.
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LSU will reportedly wear its white jerseys tomorrow night, meaning Texas will wear burnt orange on the road. When, if ever, did Texas last wear burnt orange on the road?
Poll Results
I have been remiss in not reporting the results of the recent polls I’ve been taking.
Will Arch Manning go to the NFL, transfer to another school or stay at Texas in 2027
Stays at Texas: 7 votes.
Goes to the NFL: 6 votes.
Transfers to another school: 1 vote.
Will Texas make the CFB Playoffs? (Post Florida game results.)
No: 18 votes.
Yes: 6 votes.
Hook ‘em,
W.E.
Willie Earl’s Top 40 countdown
#12
#11
#10
