In case you didn’t know, Wednesday (December 20) was the first day of the new, three -day signing for high school football prospects to sign a 2018 letter of intent with a college football program. As of today, according 247 Sports, the recruiting class Tom Herman has signed is ranked #2 nationally. Great news right? Maybe, but not if you base it on the recent track records of Charlie Strong and Tom Herman in developing three, four, and five-star recruits after they’ve become Longhorns.

Charlie Strong put together three recruiting classes that ranked 17^th, 10^th, and 7^th nationally—yet his teams finished 6-7, 5-7, and 5-7. As he walked out the door, he famously or infamously said, “The cake has been baked.”  His meaning was that he left his successor a roster loaded with talent that was ready to win Big 12 Championships and compete for a spot in the four team National Championship playoff.

At 6-6, evidently the cake needs to stay in the oven a while longer. I’d be more impressed with Tom Herman’s #2 ranked class if he and his staff had developed the players on the 2017 roster into a team that won at least eight games.  Aside from the great work Todd Orlando did with the defense, we don’t know yet—as we didn’t know with Strong—whether Herman and his staff can spin recruiting gold into power conference championship teams.

Below are charts comparing Texas’ recruiting classes and conference wins over the past five years to Big 12 rivals Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State.  The highlighted numbers on the recruiting chart are Oklahoma, TCU, and Oklahoma State recruiting classes that were ranked lower than Texas’. Draw your own conclusions.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and all the rest.

Cheers,

W.E.