For me, it feels like a lifetime ago. In 2013, I wrote a column titled “The Right Stuff.” It was my column before Texas’s game against BYU in Provo. After opening the season with a 56-7 romp over New Mexico State in Austin, Texas was ranked #15, and Longhorn fans were filled with optimism. Texas quarterback David Ash threw four touchdown passes and ran for two more in the romp. One of Ash’s rushing touchdowns was a 55-yard run showcasing athleticism and speed. After three straight years of mediocrity, Mack Brown seemed to have his team on track for a return to the glory days.
I wasn’t convinced the Longhorns were back yet. I needed to see what they could do in a tough road game against BYU. Hence, my mind conjured up a question about whether the Longhorns had the “right stuff” to win in Provo that NASA astronauts had in the early days of the space program. They didn’t, losing 40-21. The defense was so bad that Mack Brown fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz after the defeat.
***
Saturday, after playing six of their first eight games at home, Texas plays only their second road game of the season (Oklahoma isn’t considered a road game) against #18 Missouri, and I’m wondering whether Texas has the right stuff to win on the road.
Conventional wisdom in football holds that a good defense and run game travel well. Texas is 1-for-2 in those departments, with the #1 FEI-rated defense. Texas is #103 in rushing offense, averaging 135.4 yards per game.
Missouri’s defense ranks #16 nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 98.2 yards per game. If Texas has a bad day on the ground, it will have to rely on its defense and passing attack to win.
Like Texas, Missouri is 6-2 this season and 3-2 in SEC play.
This game looks like a tough matchup for the Horns.
Missouri preview
Courtesy of Paul Wadlington at Inside Texas, here are notes of interest on Missouri.
Mizzou’s most impressive win to date was a 45-17 thrashing of Florida that wasn’t even that close.
QB Austin Simmons started the year sizzling, with a 16-touchdown-to-2-interception ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt, but over his last three SEC games, he’s averaged only 6.5 yards per pass attempt against Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. He has arm talent to spare. He throws a beautiful ball.
Jamal Roberts is already over 1,000 yards rushing on the season at 5.3 yards per carry, averaging over 4 yards after contact. Stud runner Ahmad Hardy looks like he’s back from his gunshot wound after missing the first half of the season.
If Hardy is 100%, he and Roberts are the SEC’s most formidable 1-2 RB punch.
Missouri’s defense has been the most consistent strength of their team this season. They love to fire their DL up the field and hunt negative plays, and that’s backed by aggressive man-match coverages. Sark will see this on film – MAX PRO SHOTS!
Missouri has some real star power, but it’s often flanked by SEC replacement-level players.
Offensively, Longhorn injuries at wide receiver and poor OL play could make desperation do the work of reason as the offense pivots to solve pressure, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Scathing Review
Here are some highlights from Wadlington’s review of Texas’s offensive performance against Miss. St.
The average Texas drive was 4.91 plays for 26.45 yards and if that statistic sounds eerily similar to last week, that’s how you end up running only 53 plays for 280 yards at a piddling 5.3 yards per play average against a bottom quintile SEC defense.
The offensive coach’s proving ground of the Middle 8 (last 4 minutes of the first half, first 4 minutes of the second half) was a failure, posting a -4.76 per-play EPA (Expected Points Added).
Over that span, Texas would have been better off having Manning kneel the ball behind center and then punting.
Texas’s offense fell back into its season-long habit of stringing together random play calls meant to set up a decisive shot play that materializes as often by chance as by scheme (Texas only had a 6% explosive play rate) instead of trying to create a core offense that will allow a more reliable footing while Sark hunts random big plays.
This is a poorly coached and coordinated unit that is underachieving its potential and salary cap.
Thank heavens for the #1 defense in college football.
***
As of this writing, Texas is a 3-point favorite over Missouri, down from 3.5 early in the week. I understand why Texas is favored. It’s based on the Texas brand versus Missouri’s.
If I was a betting man, I would take Missouri and the points. I would also bet on Missouri on the money line: $100 to win $120 on an outright Missouri win. Don’t consider this betting advice. I’m a terrible gambler.
Hook ‘em,
W.E.
Willie Earl’s Top 40 Countdown
#15
Autumn of 1977 Texas was #1 Earl Campbell was on his way to the Heisman and the highlight of Sig Ep parties was when this song was played by our favorite band River City. It would be an understatement to say life was good.
#14
#13
