I’m short on clever thoughts this week, so I’ll rattle off a few statistics for you. The following are the official NCAA statistics for the 2026 season.

Texas has scored 6 points in the third quarter in their last 6 games. They have been shut out in the third quarter in their last 3 games. Is Texas getting outcoached at halftime?

Texas is tied for 83^rd in the country in fewest penalties per game, committing 6.9. As bad as that is, it’s an improvement over last season when Texas ranked 132nd, committing 8.3 penalties per game.

Texas is tied for 78th in 3rd-down conversions, at 39%. BYU and Miami convert at 55%, Georgia at 54%, and Notre Dame and Ohio State at 44%.

Texas is tied for 105^th in turnover margin at -3 for the season. The defense has forced only 8 turnovers, an anomaly for such a high-performing unit.

Texas ranks 18th in red zone scoring, converting on 26 of 28 red zone opportunities with 18 touchdowns and 8 field goals. Miami and Georgia have 30 touchdowns in 37 opportunities and 28 touchdowns in 34 opportunities, respectively. Texas needs to score more red zone touchdowns.

Texas is ranked 30^th in scoring defense, allowing 19.1 points per game. This doesn’t reflect the defense’s true strength. If you remove the pick-six, the blocked punt recovered for a touchdown in the Oklahoma game, and Manning’s fumble recovered for a touchdown in the Ole Miss game, the defense allows 16.1 points per game. I was surprised to learn that upcoming opponent LSU is 17^th, allowing 16 points per game.

Texas is 15^th  in total defense, surrendering 285.4 yards per game. LSU is 4^th, allowing 258.1 yards per game.

FEI

FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index), created by Brian Fremeau, is becoming the favorite statistical rating system for college football analytics nerds. Here is how Fremeau defines it.

FEI Ratings (FEI), Offense Ratings (OFEI), Defense Ratings (DFEI), and Special Teams Ratings (SFEI) are opponent-adjusted possession-efficiency data that represent the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team or unit would expect on a neutral field against an average opponent. Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents (ELS), the number of losses a team one standard deviation above average would expect to have against the schedule (GLS), and the number of losses an average team would expect to have against the schedule (ALS). Strength of record ratings (EWD, GWD, AWD) are the difference between a team’s schedule strength ratings and its actual losses.

You got that? Good. FEI is predicting Texas will beat Mississippi St. 32.5 to 20.1. Texas is favored by 20.5. MSU star quarterback Kamario Taylor is out for the season after having toe surgery this week.  More interestingly, FEI predicted Texas would beat Ole Miss 27-25.4.

In total FEI ratings, Texas is ranked 9^th. Ahead of them are Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio St., Miami, LSU, Alabama, Indiana, and Utah.

If you’re interested in more FEI, go here.

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Remember last week when I made the case that Texas could make the playoffs with a 9-3 record if their third loss was to LSU?  Well, the theory that some 9-3 teams could make the playoffs has gone mainstream. I’ve heard it on ESPN, and Kirk Bohls mentioned it this week in one of his columns. For a long time, I’ve thought that Kirk was reading my stuff.

I’ve included the same poll questions as last week at the bottom of Over/Under.

Hook ‘em,

W.E.

Willie Earl’s Top 40 Songs of Alltime

#18

John Scott and I saw the Beach Boys perform at Palmer Auditorium in May 1975. The tickets were $1 because we had paid the blanket tax for the performing arts. We sat on the floor about 20 rows back from the stage, under the balcony. When they played this song, the balcony visibly bobbed up and down, and I wondered if it might cave in on us. I guess it was engineered with a little give.

#17

#16