A common assumption after the Texas-Oklahoma game was that these two teams would meet again in the Big 12 Championship Game because there didn’t appear to be another Big 12 team who could crash the party. Since then, Kansas State has beaten Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston by a combined score of 120-24. Texas’ and Kansas State’s only common opponent so far is Houston. Texas beat them 31-24 and survived what was looking for a while like a catastrophic loss. Kansas State beat Houston 41-0. Kansas State has joined the party. Iowa State and Oklahoma State also look like party crashers and are in a five-way tie atop the Big 12 standings.
So, what we have here Saturday in Austin is a conference championship elimination game. A very big game indeed. It’s a much bigger game than Texas-OU or Texas-Alabama were. Fancy that.
Malik Murphy
It’s bad luck that Texas will play the biggest game of the season to date without Quinn Ewers. Without Ewers this game will test Steve Sarkisian’s ability to produce a gameplan that the inexperienced Murphy can execute without neutering the offense. Conventional wisdom tells you that when you have an experienced quarterback lean on the run game. But what if Steve Sarkisian turns conventional wisdom on its head and has Murphy come out slinging it. The element of surprise could put Kansas State off balance and set up a successful rushing attack. You know, the old pass to set up the run trick. Given that KSU is limiting opponents to 109.4 yards rushing per game maybe that’s the way to go. Murphy though would have to vastly improve his performance as a passer from the BYU game. Against BYU Murphy was 16 of 25 for 170 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception versus BYU. Nine of those completions were passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. On throws beyond the line of scrimmage, he was 7 of 15 for 199 yards—a 46.7 % completion percentage. For comparison’s sake, Ewers is completing 64.5% of his passes beyond the line of scrimmage.
Kansas State
I was unaware until this week that Texas was riding a six-game winning streak versus Kansas State. And KSU is the only Big 12 opponent that Steve Sarkisian is undefeated against not counting the newcomers in 2023. What I take from this is that the advantage in talent that Texas has over almost all of their opponents trumps all other factors when it comes to playing Kansas State. No so much when playing other Big 12 rivals.
Kansas State has two quarterbacks who play regularly and are true running threats. Will Howard has rushed for 313 yards and averages 5.8 yards per attempt. Avery Johnson has 222 yards rushing at 5.2 yards per rush. Can Texas’s defense keep these running quarterbacks in relative check? This along with the play of Malik Murphy are likely the two biggest keys to victory for Texas.
Both KSU quarterbacks can also be effective throwing the ball. Combined they complete 64.7 percent of their throws with 16 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. Will Howard is responsible for all 7 of the interceptions and he threw 3 each against Missouri and Oklahoma State which are the two games KSU has lost. If the Texas defense can confuse Howard without confusing themselves they should be able get a couple of interceptions. Since Texas’ secondary seems to be confused so often confusing Howard may be easier said than done.
Final – Texas’ keys to victory
1. Malik Murphy needs to play effectively beyond just being a game manager.
2. Texas needs to keep KSU quarterback runs in check. Especially on 3rd and 4th downs.
3. Texas needs to confuse Will Howard and not be confused themselves in the secondary.
4. Sarkisian needs to concede that he can’t fix Texas’ red zone issues and kick field goals instead of going for it on 4th down in the red zone.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
It looks like Texas got a break in not having to play Oklahoma State this year. They are part of the aforementioned five-way tie atop the Big 12 after losing five of their last 6 games in 2022. They’ve won four in a row including wins over Kansas and Kansas State. I have a sneaking suspicion that they will hand Oklahoma their second straight loss on Saturday and be sitting pretty for the conference championship game. After Oklahoma, their last three opponents are UCF, Houston, and BYU. Maybe Texas will play Oklahoma State one more time after all.
CFB Playoff Rankings
Texas is #7 in the playoff rankings. These rankings frequently don’t make sense but other than Texas being ranked higher than Oklahoma I don’t see any other major flaws for the time being.
Due to Oklahoma losing to Kansas, the bad news for Texas is that even if they run the table including winning the Big 12 Championship I doubt they’ll make the 4-team playoff.
Hate to leave you on that dour note so here’s some music to lift your spirits.
Bill, my thumb hit submit on the O/U before I had finished. I would have taken the Cowboys and the points. And, score of the Horns was to be Texas 34 — K State 24. Thanks, DF